India’s growing security relationship with the United States.Russia’s diminished importance for India’s foreign policy agenda.The greater importance for Russia of its ties with China than with India.Russia’s pursuit of ever-closer ties with China.In the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, this relationship is poised to undergo an even greater transformation for four reasons: In the continuing friendly and extensive ties between Moscow and New Delhi, no observer would describe the latter as the junior partner. The breakup of the Soviet Union and Russia’s subsequent diminished international status shifted the balance in the relationship toward India, which had emerged as a major power transformed by the economic reforms initiated in the early 1990s and as well as a growing global presence. Throughout the Cold War, the Soviet Union as a superpower had the upper hand in the relationship with India, which was part of the community of “developing” nations, albeit also one of the leaders of the Non-Aligned Movement. Russia and India have enjoyed a long history of friendly, mutually beneficial relations. National Intelligence Council, is a senior fellow and the director of Carnegie’s Russia and Eurasia Program. Rumer, a former national intelligence officer for Russia and Eurasia at the U.S. India, while it has long depended on Russia and still regards it as an important country, increasingly seeks to set the terms of their engagement. 1 Xi Jinping, who also attended the SCO gathering, did not endorse Putin’s war, but neither did he overtly criticize it Modi did. Speaking about the Kremlin’s invasion of Ukraine, Modi, in what amounted to a public admonition, told Putin that he had spoken to him “many times before” about the need to rely on diplomacy and take the path toward peace to wind up a war that had caused food and fuel prices to soar. The encounter between President Vladimir Putin and Prime Minister Narendra Modi at the September 2022 summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in Samarkand, Uzbekistan, captured the change that is occurring in the partnership between Russia and India. For reasons of geographic proximity, economic ties, and personal relations between Presidents Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping, the odds favor Beijing over New Delhi to have a bigger say in Moscow. The question is how China will react to Russian arms sales to India, and what Russia will do if pressed by China to curtail them. It has been said that Moscow plays a weak hand well, but sustaining strong security ties with both China and India will become more difficult for it. India has no reason to forsake the benefits of this relationship. security relationship is relatively new, whereas India-Russia ties have endured for over two generations. For Russia, India is an important market for arms and oil. By doing so, it has demonstrated its independent foreign policy. India has not joined the West’s sanctions on Russia. For India, Russia remains an important supplier of weapons and, most recently, oil. Still, the Russian-Indian partnership will continue. Rajan Menon is a nonresident scholar in the Russia and Eurasia Program and director of the Grand Strategy Program at Defense Priorities. Moscow’s leverage versus both New Delhi and Beijing is shrinking as they have greater capabilities of their own than they had previously and have new partners that offer more than Russia. Against the backdrop of U.S.-China and China-India tensions, Russia’s position as China’s junior partner will make it harder for Russia to preserve partnership with India. Russia’s break with the West because of its war against Ukraine has accelerated its pivot toward China. India’s desire to diversify its supply of weapons and develop its own defense industry has resulted in declining Russian arms deliveries to India in recent years. Russia remains a major supplier of weapons to India, and Russian equipment still makes up a vast portion of Indian Armed Forces’ force structure but Russia is facing competition in the Indian arms market. Of the three pillars of the Moscow–New Delhi relationship, only one remains: the arms trade. The fall of the Soviet Union, the rise of India and China, the U.S.-China tensions, the deepening of U.S.-India ties, and the Russian-Chinese partnership intensified by Russia’s break with the West and the war against Ukraine have had a profound effect on Russian-Indian relations. United States–Pakistan–China geopolitical alignment. shared public-sector-heavy economic philosophy and extensive Soviet aid and.Throughout the Cold War, the relationship rested on three pillars: Russian-Indian relations are undergoing a major change.
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